Kwisiqingatha sokuqala salo nyaka, imakethi ye-polyether ethambileyo ye-foam ibonise umkhwa wokunyuka kokuqala kunye nokuwa, kunye neziko lexabiso lilonke liyatshona.Nangona kunjalo, ngenxa yokunikezelwa okuqinileyo kwezinto eziluhlaza ze-EPDM ngo-Matshi kunye nokunyuka okunamandla kwamaxabiso, imarike ye-foam ethambileyo iqhubekile nokunyuka, kunye namaxabiso afikelela kwi-11300 yuan / toni kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, ngaphezu kokulindela.Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya kuJuni ka-2026, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo le-polyether ye-foam ethambileyo kwimarike ye-East China yayiyi-9898.79 yuan / toni, ukuncipha kwe-15.08% xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo.Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, ixabiso lemarike eliphantsi ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari laliyi-8900 yuan, kwaye umahluko wexabiso phakathi kwesiphelo esiphezulu nesisezantsi sasiyi-2600 yuan/toni, ngokuthe ngcembe kunciphisa ukuguquguquka kweemarike.

Ukwehla kweziko lamaxabiso emarike kubangelwa ikakhulu kukuhla kwexabiso lempahla ekrwada, kunye nesiphumo somdlalo phakathi konikezelo lwemalike oluyintabalala kunye “nolindelo olunamandla kunye nenyaniso ebuthathaka”.Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sika-2023, imakethi yeqamza elithambileyo inokwahlulwa ngokwenqanaba eliphantsi lempembelelo ephezulu kunye nenqanaba lokubuyela umva.
Ukususela ngoJanuwari ukuya ekuqaleni kuka-Matshi, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuye kwanyuka
1. I-EPDM yezinto eziluhlaza iyaqhubeka nokunyuka.Ebudeni boMnyhadala waseNtwasahlobo, ukuhanjiswa kwezixhobo zokukhusela imekobume kwakugudileyo, yaye amaxabiso ayeguquguquka yaye enyuka.Ekuqaleni kuka-Matshi, ngenxa yokugcinwa kwezinto eziluhlaza ezifana nesigaba sokuqala se-Huanbing Zhenhai kunye ne-Binhua, unikezelo lwaluqinile, kwaye amaxabiso enyuka kakhulu, eqhuba imarike ye-foam ethambileyo ukuqhubeka nokunyuka.Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, amaxabiso enyuka.
2. Impembelelo yeemeko zentlalo iyancipha ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye imarike inokulindela okulungileyo kokubuyiswa kwecala lemfuno.Abathengisi bazimisele ukuxhasa amaxabiso, kodwa imarike i-bearish malunga ne-Spring Festival, kwaye kunzima ukufumana ukunikezelwa kwexabiso eliphantsi kwiimarike emva kweholide.Ngeli nqanaba, imfuno esezantsi yomlambo iphantsi, igcina imfuno engqongqo yokuthengwa kwempahla, ngokukodwa ukubuyela kwimarike ngexesha loMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo, ukutsala ingqondo yemarike.
Ukusukela embindini kaMatshi ukuya kuJuni, ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso ehlile kwaye ukuguquguquka kwentengiso kuye kwacutheka
1. Umthamo omtsha wemveliso yezinto eziluhlaza ze-EPDM ziye zafakwa ngokuqhubekayo kwimarike, kwaye ingqondo yoshishino i-bearish.Kwikota yesibini, yachaphazela ngokuthe ngcembe ukunikezelwa kwe-EPDM kwiimarike, kubangela ukuba ixabiso le-EPDM lihle kwaye liqhube ixabiso le-soft foam polyether market ukuhla;
2. Imfuno ye-downstream ifumene ngaphantsi kunoko bekulindelekile ngo-Matshi, kwaye ukukhula kwe-downstream order kwakulinganiselwe ngo-Epreli.Ukusukela ngoMeyi, ithe chu yangena kwixesha elingekhoyo lesiqhelo, irhuqa ezantsi umlambo ukucinga.Imarike yepolyether ininzi kakhulu ekuboneleleni, kwaye ukunikezelwa kweemarike kunye nemfuno iyaqhubeka nokukhuphisana, okukhokelela ekuhlahleni okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso.Uninzi lwezitora ezisezantsi ziyazaliswa kwakhona njengoko zifuneka.Xa ixabiso libuyela kwinqanaba eliphantsi, liya kukhokelela ekuthengeni okuphakathi kwimfuno ephantsi, kodwa iya kuhlala isiqingatha sosuku ukuya ngosuku.Ekuqaleni kukaMeyi kweli nqanaba, ngenxa yokunqongophala kwempahla ekrwada yobonelelo lwe-EPDM kunye nokunyuka kwexabiso, imakethi yepolyether ethambileyo inyuke malunga ne-600 yuan/toni, ngelixa imarike yepolyether ubukhulu becala ibonise ukuguquguquka kwexabiso, ngamaxabiso alandela ngokuqhubekayo. .
Okwangoku, iipolyether polyols zisekho kwixesha lokwandiswa kwamandla.Ukususela kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, umthamo wonyaka wemveliso ye-polyether polyols e-China iye yanda ukuya kwi-7.53 yezigidi zeetoni.Umzi-mveliso ugcina imveliso esekelwe kwisicwangciso sokuthengisa, kunye neefektri ezinkulu ezisebenza kakuhle ngokubanzi, ngelixa iifektri ezincinci kunye neziphakathi zingafanelekanga.Inqanaba lokusebenza kolu shishino liphezulu kancinane kune-50%.Xa kuthelekiswa nemfuno, unikezelo lwemarike ye-polyether ethambileyo ye-foam ibisoloko ininzi.Ukusuka kumbono wemfuno esezantsi, njengoko impembelelo yentlalontle iyancipha ngokuthe ngcembe, abangaphakathi kwishishini banethemba malunga nemfuno ngo-2023, kodwa ukubuyiswa kwemfuno yemveliso yezoshishino kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka akulindelekanga.Kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka, ishishini lesiponji elisezantsi line-inventri ephantsi ngaphambi koMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo, kwaye umthamo wokuthengwa kwempahla emva koMnyhadala weNtwasahlobo wawungaphantsi kunoko kulindelweyo.Kwi-inventri yemfuno ukusuka ngoMatshi ukuya ku-Epreli, kunye nexesha elingekhoyo lemveli ukusuka ngoMeyi ukuya kuJuni.Ukubuyiswa kweshishini lesiponji kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka kwakuphantsi kakhulu kunokuba kulindelwe, ukutsala ingqondo yokuthenga.Okwangoku, ngokunyuka kunye nokuwa kwemarike ye-bubble ethambileyo, ukuthengwa kwezinto ezininzi ezisezantsi ziye zatshintshela ekuthengeni okuqinileyo, kunye nomjikelo wokuthenga weveki enye ukuya kwiiveki ezimbini kunye nexesha lokuthenga isiqingatha sosuku ukuya kusuku olunye.Utshintsho kwimijikelo yokuthengwa kwempahla ezantsi kukwachaphazele ngandlel’ ithile ukuhla okunyuka kwangoku kumaxabiso eepolyether.

Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, imakethi yepolyether ethambileyo inokufumana ukwehla okuncinci kwaye amaxabiso angabuya.
Kwikota yesine, indawo yemarike yomxhuzulane inokuphinda ifumane ubuthathaka obuncinci, njengoko imarike iguquguquka kumdlalo wemfuno yokubonelela ngempembelelo yokusingqongileyo yemathiriyeli ekrwada.
1. Ekupheleni kwendandatho ekrwada C, amandla okuvelisa amatsha eringi C ngokuthe ngcembe abekwe emarikeni.Kusekho umthamo omtsha wemveliso oza kukhutshwa kwikota yesithathu.Kulindeleke ukuba unikezelo lwe-EPDM yezinto eziluhlaza luya kuqhubeka nokubonisa ukunyuka okunyukayo kwikota yesithathu, kwaye iphethini yokhuphiswano iya kuba nzima ngakumbi.Kusenokubakho ukuhla kancinci kwimarike, kwaye i-polyether ye-foam ethambileyo inokubetha umzantsi omncinci endleleni;Ngexesha elifanayo, ukunyuka kokunikezelwa kwezinto eziluhlaza ze-EPDM kunokuchaphazela uluhlu lokuguquguquka kwexabiso.Kulindeleke ukuba ukunyuka kunye nokuwa kwemarike ye-bubble ethambileyo iya kuhlala ngaphakathi kwe-200-1000 yuan / toni;
2. Ubonelelo lwemarike yepolyether yogwebu ethambileyo isenokugcina imeko yemfuno eyaneleyo.Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, iifektri ezinkulu eShandong nakumazantsi eChina zinezicwangciso zokulondoloza okanye amaxesha asekuhlaleni okubonelela ngokungqongqo kwimarike ye-polyether, enokubonelela ngenkxaso efanelekileyo yengqondo yabaqhubi okanye iqhube ukunyuka okuncinci kwimarike.Ukuhanjiswa kwempahla phakathi kwemimandla kunokulindeleka ukuba komeleze;
3. Ngokwemfuno, ukususela kwikota yesithathu, iimarike ezisezantsi zihamba ngokuthe ngcembe kwixesha eliqhelekileyo, kwaye ii-odolo ezintsha zilindeleke ukuba zinyuke ngokuthe ngcembe.Umsebenzi wokurhweba kunye nokuzinza kweemarike ze-polyether kulindeleke ukuba ziphucule ngokuthe ngcembe.Ngokwe-inertia yoshishino, uninzi lweenkampani ezisezantsi zithenga imathiriyeli ekrwada kwangethuba ngexesha lexesha eliphakamileyo xa amaxabiso efanelekile kwikota yesithathu.Ukuthengiswa kweemarike kwikota yesithathu kulindeleke ukuba kuphucuke xa kuthelekiswa nekota yesibini;
4. Ukususela kuhlalutyo lonyaka lwe-polyether ye-foam ethambileyo, kwiminyaka elishumi edlulileyo, imarike ye-foam ethambileyo iye yafumana ukwanda okukhulu ukusuka ngoJulayi ukuya ku-Oktobha, ngakumbi ngoSeptemba.Njengoko imakethi ingena ngokuthe ngcembe kwixesha lemfuno lesiqhelo le "golden nine silver ten", kulindeleke ukuba utshintshiselwano lwemalike luqhubeke nokuphucuka.Kwikota yesine, amashishini eemoto kunye nesipontshi kulindeleke ukuba abone ukwanda kokukhula komyalelo, okwenza inkxaso kwicala lemfuno.Ngokunyuka okuqhubekayo kwindawo egqityiweyo ye-real estate kunye nemveliso yoshishino lweemoto, inokuthi kwinqanaba elithile iqhube imfuno yemarike ye-polyether ye-foam ethambileyo.

Ngokusekwe kolu hlalutyo lungentla, kulindeleke ukuba imakethi ye-polyether ye-foam ethambileyo iya kuphinda ibuyele emva kokufikelela ezantsi kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, kodwa ngenxa yezizathu zonyaka, kuya kubakho umkhwa wokulungisa ekupheleni konyaka.Ukongezelela, umda ophezulu we-rebound yemarike yokuqala awuyi kuba phezulu kakhulu, kwaye uluhlu lwexabiso oluqhelekileyo lunokuba phakathi kwe-9400-10500 yuan / ton.Ngokweepateni zonyaka, indawo ephakamileyo kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka kunokwenzeka ukuba ibonakale ngoSeptemba no-Oktobha, ngelixa inqanaba eliphantsi lingabonakala ngoJulayi noDisemba.