Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo no, cov muag muag ua npuas ncauj polyether ua lag luam pom ib tug qauv ntawm thawj zaug nce thiab ces ntog, nrog rau tag nrho cov nqi chaw sinking.Txawm li cas los xij, vim yog cov khoom siv nruj ntawm EPDM hauv lub Peb Hlis thiab cov nqi nce ntxiv, cov khoom lag luam muag muag tau nce ntxiv, nrog rau cov nqi nce mus txog 11300 yuan / ton hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, tshaj qhov kev cia siab.Txij thaum Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj txog Lub Rau Hli 2026, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov mos mos ua npuas ncauj polyether nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Tuam Tshoj ua lag luam yog 9898.79 yuan / ton, ib qho txo ​​qis ntawm 15.08% piv rau tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los.Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, tus nqi lag luam qis thaum Lub Ib Hlis yog 8900 yuan, thiab tus nqi sib txawv ntawm qhov siab thiab qis kawg yog 2600 yuan / tuj, maj mam txo kev lag luam volatility.

Kev poob qis ntawm kev lag luam tus nqi lag luam feem ntau yog tshwm sim los ntawm kev sib tsoo ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom, nrog rau qhov tshwm sim ntawm qhov kev ua si ntawm cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb thiab "kev cia siab muaj zog thiab qhov tsis muaj zog" thov.Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023, kev ua lag luam npuas muag tuaj yeem muab faib ua qhov cuam tshuam qis rau theem siab thiab poob siab rov qab theem.
Txij Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj mus rau Lub Peb Hlis Ntuj, cov nqi hloov pauv tau nce
1. Cov khoom siv raw EPDM tseem nce siab.Thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, kev xa khoom ntawm raw khoom rau kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig yog du, thiab cov nqi hloov pauv thiab nce ntxiv.Nyob rau lub Peb Hlis thaum ntxov, vim yog kev saib xyuas cov khoom siv raw xws li thawj theem ntawm Huanbing Zhenhai thiab Binhua, cov khoom siv tau nruj, thiab cov nqi tau nce siab, ua rau lub khw muag khoom muag muag mus ntxiv.Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, cov nqi tau nce.
2. Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib raug zoo yog maj mam poob qis, thiab kev ua lag luam muaj kev cia siab zoo rau kev rov qab los ntawm qhov kev thov sab.Cov neeg muag khoom txaus siab txhawb nqa tus nqi, tab sis kev ua lag luam poob qis nyob ib puag ncig lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, thiab nws nyuaj rau nrhiav cov khoom siv qis hauv khw tom qab hnub so.Nyob rau theem no, qhov kev xav tau qis qis qis, tswj xyuas qhov kev xav tau nruj rau kev yuav khoom, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog rov qab mus rau kev lag luam thaum lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, rub tawm kev lag luam kev xav.
Los ntawm nruab nrab Lub Peb Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli, tus nqi hloov pauv tau txo qis thiab kev lag luam hloov pauv maj mam nqaim
1. Lub peev xwm tsim khoom tshiab ntawm cov khoom siv raw EPDM tau muab tso rau hauv kev ua lag luam tsis tu ncua, thiab kev xav ntawm kev lag luam yog bearish.Nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob, nws maj mam cuam tshuam cov khoom ntawm EPDM hauv kev ua lag luam, ua rau tus nqi ntawm EPDM poob qis thiab tsav tus nqi ntawm cov khoom ua npuas ncauj polyether poob;
2. Qhov kev thov qis qis tau rov qab qis dua li qhov xav tau hauv lub Peb Hlis, thiab kev txiav txim qis qis qis tau txwv rau lub Plaub Hlis.Pib txij lub Tsib Hlis, nws tau maj mam nkag mus rau lub caij nyoog tsis zoo, ua rau qis qis qis ntawm kev xav tau.Kev lag luam polyether kuj muaj ntau nyob rau hauv cov khoom, thiab cov khoom lag luam thiab kev thov txuas ntxiv mus sib tw, ua rau cov nqi poob qis.Feem ntau cov khw muag khoom hauv qab tau muab ntxiv raws li xav tau.Thaum tus nqi thim rov qab los ntawm qhov qis qis, nws yuav ua rau kev lag luam hauv nruab nrab hauv kev xav tau qis, tab sis nws yuav kav ntev li ib nrab hnub mus rau ib hnub.Thaum pib ntawm lub Tsib Hlis ntawm theem no, vim qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom EPDM thiab tus nqi nce, cov khoom lag luam muag muag muag tau nce li ntawm 600 yuan / tuj, thaum lub lag luam polyether feem ntau pom cov nqi hloov pauv, nrog cov nqi ua raws li cov qauv. .
Tam sim no, polyether polyols tseem nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev nthuav dav.Raws li thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, lub peev xwm tsim tawm txhua xyoo ntawm polyether polyols hauv Suav teb tau nthuav dav mus rau 7.53 lab tons.Lub Hoobkas tswj kev tsim khoom raws li kev muag khoom, nrog rau cov chaw tsim khoom loj feem ntau ua haujlwm tau zoo, thaum cov chaw tsim khoom me thiab nruab nrab tsis zoo tagnrho.Kev lag luam qib kev ua haujlwm yog me ntsis siab dua 50%.Piv nrog rau kev thov, cov khoom lag luam ntawm cov khoom ua npuas ncauj polyether yog ib txwm muaj ntau.Los ntawm qhov kev xav ntawm qhov kev xav tau qis qis, raws li kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib raug zoo maj mam txo qis, kev lag luam sab hauv tau zoo siab txog qhov kev thov hauv 2023, tab sis kev rov qab los ntawm cov khoom lag luam xav tau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tsis zoo li qhov xav tau.Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, lub ntsiab downstream sponge kev lag luam muaj tsawg cov khoom muag ua ntej lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival, thiab cov khoom ntim tom qab lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav Festival yog qis dua qhov xav tau.Ntawm kev thov cov khoom muag txij lub Peb Hlis mus txog Lub Plaub Hlis, thiab ib txwm caij tawm ntawm lub Tsib Hlis mus rau Lub Rau Hli.Kev rov qab los ntawm daim txhuam cev kev lag luam hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tau qis dua li qhov xav tau, rub tawm lub siab yuav khoom.Tam sim no, nrog kev nce thiab poob ntawm kev ua lag luam npuas muag, feem ntau cov kev yuav khoom hauv qab tau hloov mus rau kev yuav khoom nruj, nrog rau kev yuav khoom ntawm ib mus rau ob lub lis piam thiab lub sijhawm yuav khoom ntawm ib nrab hnub mus rau ib hnub.Cov kev hloov pauv hauv cov khoom siv qis qis kuj muaj qee qhov cuam tshuam rau qhov kev hloov pauv tam sim no hauv cov nqi polyether.

Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, lub khw muag khoom ua npuas ncauj polyether tej zaum yuav muaj ib tug me ntsis poob thiab cov nqi yuav rov qab.
Nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib plaub, lub lag luam qhov chaw ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus tej zaum yuav muaj ib tug me ntsis kev qaug zog, raws li kev ua lag luam fluctuates nyob rau hauv cov khoom-xav tau kev ua si nrog ib puag ncig cuam tshuam ntawm raw cov ntaub ntawv.
1. Thaum kawg ntawm cov khoom siv raw nplhaib C, qee qhov kev tsim khoom tshiab ntawm lub nplhaib C tau maj mam muab tso rau hauv kev ua lag luam.Tseem muaj peev xwm tsim tawm tshiab rau lub quarter thib peb.Nws cia siab tias cov khoom siv raw khoom EPDM tseem yuav nthuav tawm qhov kev nce siab hauv lub quarter thib peb, thiab cov qauv kev sib tw yuav dhau los ua nruj heev.Tej zaum tseem yuav muaj kev poob qis me ntsis hauv kev ua lag luam, thiab cov ntaub mos mos polyether tuaj yeem tsoo me me hauv qab ntawm txoj kev;Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov nce ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom EPDM tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau ntau qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm tus nqi.Nws cia siab tias qhov nce thiab poob ntawm cov npuas muag muag yuav nyob twj ywm li ntawm 200-1000 yuan / tuj;
2. Lub khw muag khoom ntawm cov khoom ua npuas ncauj polyether tseem tuaj yeem tuav lub xeev qhov kev thov txaus.Nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, loj factories nyob rau hauv Shandong thiab yav qab teb Tuam Tshoj muaj cov kev npaj saib xyuas los yog lub zos lub sij hawm ntawm nruj mov nyob rau hauv lub lag luam polyether, uas muaj peev xwm muab kev pab txhawb rau lub hlwb ntawm cov neeg ua hauj lwm los yog tsav ib tug me ntsis nce nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam.Kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom nruab nrab ntawm cheeb tsam tuaj yeem xav tias yuav ntxiv dag zog;
3. Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev thov, pib txij lub quarter thib peb, cov kev lag luam downstream tau maj mam tsiv tawm ntawm cov tsoos off-season, thiab cov kev txiav txim tshiab yuav tsum maj mam nce.Kev ua lag luam thiab kev ruaj ntseg ntawm cov lag luam polyether yuav tsum maj mam txhim kho.Raws li kev lag luam inertia, feem ntau cov tuam txhab downstream yuav cov khoom raw ua ntej thaum lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws thaum tus nqi tsim nyog hauv peb lub hlis twg.Kev lag luam kev lag luam hauv lub quarter thib peb xav tias yuav txhim kho piv rau lub quarter thib ob;
4. Los ntawm kev soj ntsuam raws caij nyoog ntawm cov ntaub mos mos polyether, nyob rau hauv kaum xyoo dhau los, cov khoom ua npuas ncauj muag tau muaj kev nce ntxiv txij lub Xya Hli mus txog Lub Kaum Hli, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau lub Cuaj Hli.Raws li kev ua lag luam maj mam nkag mus rau cov tsoos "golden cuaj nyiaj kaum" xav tau lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws, nws xav tias kev lag luam kev lag luam tseem yuav txhim kho.Nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib plaub, kev lag luam tsheb thiab daim txhuam cev yuav tsum pom qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev txiav txim, tsim kev txhawb nqa ntawm qhov kev thov sab.Nrog kev nce ntxiv hauv thaj chaw ua tiav ntawm vaj tse thiab kev tsim khoom ntawm kev lag luam tsheb, nws yuav ua rau qee qhov kev xav tau ntawm kev ua lag luam rau cov khoom ua npuas ncauj polyether.

Raws li kev soj ntsuam saum toj no, nws xav tias cov khoom lag luam muag muag polyether yuav maj mam rov qab los tom qab ncav cuag qis hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, tab sis vim muaj cov xwm txheej raws caij nyoog, yuav muaj kev hloov kho thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo.Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov kev txwv sab saud ntawm kev ua lag luam thaum ntxov yuav tsis siab heev, thiab tus nqi tseem ceeb yuav nyob nruab nrab ntawm 9400-10500 yuan / ton.Raws li cov qauv raws caij nyoog, qhov siab tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog zoo li yuav tshwm sim nyob rau hauv lub Cuaj Hli Ntuj thiab Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj, thaum lub sij hawm qis taw tes yuav tshwm sim nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj thiab lub Kaum Ob Hlis.