In the first half of 2023, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 78.42GW, an astonishing 47.54GW increase compared to 30.88GW in the same period of 2022, with an increase of 153.95%. The increase in photovoltaic demand has led to a significant increase in the supply and demand of EVA. It is expected that the total demand for EVA will reach 3.135 million tons in 2023, and it is expected to further climb to 4.153 million tons in 2027. It is expected that the compound annual growth rate for the next five years will reach 8.4%.
The rapid development of the photovoltaic industry has set a new historical high in installed capacity

Data source: Jin Lianchuang, National Energy Administration
In 2022, the global consumption of EVA resin reached 4.151 million tons, mainly used in the film and sheet fields. The domestic EVA industry has also shown good development momentum in recent years. Between 2018 and 2022, the average annual compound growth rate of EVA apparent consumption reached 15.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 26.4% in 2022, reaching 2.776 million tons.

In the first half of 2023, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 78.42GW, an astonishing 47.54GW increase compared to 30.88GW in the same period of 2022, with an increase of 153.95%. The monthly installed capacity continues to be higher than the same period in 2022, with monthly growth fluctuating between 88% -466%. Especially in June, the highest monthly installed capacity of photovoltaic power reached 17.21GW, a year-on-year increase of 140%; And March became the month with the highest growth rate, with a new installed capacity of 13.29GW, and a year-on-year growth rate of 466%.

The upstream photovoltaic silicon material market has also rapidly released new production capacity, but supply far exceeds demand, leading to a continuous decline in silicon material prices and a reduction in industry costs, helping the photovoltaic industry maintain high-speed growth and maintain strong terminal demand. This growth momentum has triggered a surge in demand for upstream EVA particles, prompting the EVA industry to continuously expand production capacity.

The growth of photovoltaic demand drives a significant increase in EVA supply and demand

Data source: Jin Lianchuang
The increase in photovoltaic demand has led to a significant increase in the demand for EVA. The release of domestic production capacity in the first half of 2023 and the production of equipment by enterprises such as Gulei Petrochemical have all contributed to the increase in domestic EVA supply, while the import volume has also increased.

In the first half of 2023, the supply of EVA (including domestic production and total imports) reached 1.6346 million tons/year, an increase of 298400 tons or 22.33% compared to the same period in 2022. The monthly supply volume is higher than the same period in 2022, with monthly growth rates ranging from 8% to 47%, and February was the time of the highest supply growth. The supply of domestically produced EVA reached 156000 tons in February 2023, a year-on-year increase of 25.0% and a decrease of 7.6% compared to the same period last month. This is mainly due to the shutdown and maintenance of some petrochemical enterprises' equipment and the lack of working days. Meanwhile, the import volume of EVA in February 2023 was 136900 tons, an increase of 80.00% month on month and 82.39% compared to the same period in 2022. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday has led to a delay in the arrival of some EVA cargo sources in Hong Kong, and coupled with the expected improvement in the market after the Spring Festival, the supply of imported EVA has significantly increased.

It is expected that in the future, the photovoltaic industry will continue to maintain a high-speed growth momentum. With the gradual easing of the epidemic, the domestic economy will fully recover, infrastructure projects such as internet communication and high-speed rail will continue to advance, and residents' living areas, including healthcare, sports, agriculture, etc., will also achieve stable growth. Under the combined action of these factors, the demand for EVA in different sub sectors will steadily increase. It is expected that the total demand for EVA in 2023 will reach 3.135 million tons, and it is expected to further climb to 4.153 million tons in 2027. It is expected that the compound annual growth rate will reach 8.4% in the next five years.