Throughout this year’s bisphenol A market, the price is basically lower than 10000 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is different from the glorious period of more than 20000 yuan in previous years. The author believes that the imbalance between supply and demand restricts the market, and the industry is moving forward under pressure. Prices below 10000 yuan may become the norm in the future bisphenol A market.
Specifically, firstly, the production capacity of bisphenol A has significantly increased. Since the beginning of this year, the production capacity of bisphenol A has continued to be released, with the total annual production capacity of the two enterprises reaching 440000 tons. Affected by this, China’s total annual production capacity of bisphenol A reached 4.265 million tons, an increase of about 55% year-on-year, and the monthly average production reached 288000 tons, setting a new historical high. In the future, the expansion of bisphenol A production has not stopped, and it is expected that the new production capacity of bisphenol A will exceed 1.2 million tons this year. If put into production on time, the annual production capacity of bisphenol A in China will expand to around 5.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 45%. At that time, the risk of a price drop below 9000 yuan will continue to accumulate.
Secondly, corporate profits are not optimistic. Since the beginning of this year, the prosperity of the bisphenol A industry chain has been declining. From the perspective of upstream raw materials, The phenolic ketone market is interpreted as the “phenolic ketone market” M The trend is that in the first quarter, phenolic ketone enterprises were basically in a loss state, and in the second quarter, most enterprises turned positive profits. However, in mid May, the phenolic ketone market broke through the downward trend, with acetone falling by more than 1000 yuan and phenol falling by more than 600 yuan, directly improving the profitability of bisphenol a enterprises. However, even so, the bisphenol a industry is still hovering around the cost line. Currently, bisphenol a devices continue to be maintained, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate has decreased. The maintenance season is over After the deadline, it is expected that the overall supply of bisphenol A will increase, and competitive pressure may continue to increase at that time. The profit outlook is still not optimistic.
Thirdly, weak demand support. The production capacity explosion of bisphenol A failed to match the growth of downstream demand in a timely manner, leading to increasingly obvious supply-demand contradictions, which is an important factor in the sustained low-level operation of the market. The downstream consumption of polycarbonate (PC) bisphenol A accounts for over 60%. Since 2022, the PC industry has entered a stock production capacity digestion cycle, with terminal demand lower than supply increment. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market is obvious, and PC prices continue to decline, affecting the enthusiasm of enterprises to start construction. At present, the utilization rate of PC production capacity is less than 70%, which is difficult to improve in the short term. On the other hand, although downstream epoxy resin production capacity continues to expand, the demand for terminal coatings industry is sluggish, and it is difficult to substantially improve terminal consumption such as electronics, electronics, and composite materials. Demand side constraints still exist, and the industry’s capacity utilization rate is less than 50%. Overall, downstream PC and epoxy resin cannot support the raw material bisphenol A.